Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $14.8K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,391
72h +$2,391
Smart money entered79¢99¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$14.8K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,391, +$2,391 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Sell | Down | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $436 |
| 5h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 5h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $257 |
| 5h ago | 0x8e77…25f8Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $942 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0xef41…bc91Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $56 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 94¢ | $16 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 7.0¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 7.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 94¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 90¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 90¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | G-Penis-MonsterMid | Buy | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 78¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 78¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 19¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 45¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 45¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 45¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | soswald1Mid | Buy | Up | 74¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | soswald1Mid | Buy | Up | 69¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | soswald1Mid | Buy | Up | 58¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 46¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 46¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 67¢ | $122 |
| 5h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 57¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 67¢ | $122 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 47¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 47¢ | $10 |
| 5h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 57¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 47¢ | $6 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $92 |
| 5h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 68¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 76¢ | $212 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 68¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $42 |
| 5h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $2 |