Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $11.9K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,732
72h +$1,732
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 05:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$11.9K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,732, +$1,732 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x8e77…25f8Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $35 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x8e77…25f8Mid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $35 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.5¢ | $10 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Sell | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $508 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $297 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $297 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $58 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $39 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $34 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 5h ago | 0xef41…bc91Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $98 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $39 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $34 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 2.0¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $475 |
| 5h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 5h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $159 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 95¢ | $25 |
| 5h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Up | 94¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0xd749…9b2cMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |