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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $13.5K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$9,291
72h +$9,291
Smart money entered56¢99¢at 02:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$13.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$9,291, +$9,291 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$90
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$5
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$6
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$27
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$18
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
4h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$250
4h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$158
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$2,609
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$824
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown96¢$58
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp13¢$3
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown90¢$6
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp13¢$0
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown89¢$13
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp13¢$3
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown84¢$13
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown89¢$128
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown90¢$6
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp14¢$4
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp57¢$0
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown50¢$12
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown49¢$0
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown49¢$1
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown50¢$1
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown55¢$8
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown49¢$1
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown55¢$14
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown55¢$11
4h agoviniangussoTopBuyUp26¢$1
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown71¢$11
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown71¢$53
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown20¢$63
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown16¢$240
4h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown49¢$2
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown16¢$240
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$21
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp57¢$1
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown20¢$63
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown8.0¢$3
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown7.0¢$1
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown7.0¢$1
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown8.0¢$3
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown8.0¢$12
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown7.0¢$1
4h agoN0wh3r3T0YEETT0n1ghtTopBuyDown7.0¢$1