Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $15.2K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$18.7K
72h +$18.7K
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 02:00(82% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$15.2K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 82% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$18.7K, +$18.7K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $33 |
| 5h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,274 |
| 5h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $500 |
| 5h ago | 0x1875…a782Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,199 |
| 5h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $2,779 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $946 |
| 5h ago | 0xb6c3…4a42Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $320 |
| 5h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $2,518 |
| 5h ago | 0x5a6f…0e13Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,006 |
| 5h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $16 |
| 5h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $135 |
| 5h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $331 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $999 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $228 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $228 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $999 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $57 |
| 5h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,997 |
| 5h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,997 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $549 |
| 5h ago | 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $549 |
| 5h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 87¢ | $20 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 26¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 72¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 72¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 37¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 36¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 34¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 34¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 66¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 66¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 37¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 37¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 64¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 64¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 33¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 33¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 33¢ | $3 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 33¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 71¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 71¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 73¢ | $9 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 28¢ | $11 |
| 5h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 28¢ | $11 |
| 5h ago | 0xe956…d21cMid | Buy | Down | 45¢ | $5 |