Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.7K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
10
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$8,978
72h +$8,978
Smart money entered95¢100¢at 02:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$12.7K
Explanation
10 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$8,978, +$8,978 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $183 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $107 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 6h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $93 |
| 6h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $158 |
| 6h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $158 |
| 6h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $3,447 |
| 6h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $3,447 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $19 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $9 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $9 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $5 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $46 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $28 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 91¢ | $23 |
| 6h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 15¢ | $8 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $9 |
| 6h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 15¢ | $8 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $32 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $17 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 81¢ | $12 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 81¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 81¢ | $1 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 91¢ | $11 |
| 6h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $93 |
| 6h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $93 |
| 6h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $93 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $1 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $2 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $1 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $2 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 68¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 37¢ | $24 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $5 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 64¢ | $6 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 33¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 64¢ | $10 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 81¢ | $20 |
| 6h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 81¢ | $0 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 16¢ | $3 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 10¢ | $1 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 11¢ | $3 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 8.0¢ | $2 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 81¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 81¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 22¢ | $1 |