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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $21.1K·Volume $52·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 03:10computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,289
72h +$3,289
Smart money entered92¢100¢at 03:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$21.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,289, +$3,289 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 03:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$9
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$2
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$29
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$39
8h ago0xb6c3…4a42MidBuyDown100¢$48
8h ago0xb6c3…4a42MidBuyDown100¢$48
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp8.8¢$25
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp6.0¢$1
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp8.8¢$25
8h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp3.0¢$0
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp6.0¢$1
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$297
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$82
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$51
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$76
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$90
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$99
8h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$7
8h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$29
8h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
8h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$130
8h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$111
8h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$551
8h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$30
8h agothantiiMidBuyDown89¢$999
8h agothantiiMidBuyDown89¢$999
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp8.0¢$2
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp8.0¢$2
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown86¢$10
8h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown83¢$20
8h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$2
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown86¢$10
8h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$0
8h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$0
8h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$1
8h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$1
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown69¢$8
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown69¢$8
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown65¢$8
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown65¢$8
8h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp37¢$5
8h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp37¢$5