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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $20.5K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 17:58computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$969
72h +$969
Smart money entered84¢99¢at 17:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$20.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$969, +$969 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 17:58
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$64
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$170
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$8
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$2
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$5
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$8
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$5
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$52
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$376
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp99¢$3
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp81¢$24
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp81¢$2
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown28¢$10
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown28¢$10
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp67¢$9
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp67¢$20
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp67¢$0
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown29¢$10
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp67¢$1
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp67¢$1
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown29¢$10
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp61¢$17
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp61¢$17
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown58¢$7
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown60¢$15
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown63¢$13
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown63¢$13
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown57¢$10
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown57¢$10
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown56¢$10
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown56¢$10
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$1
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp31¢$6
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown68¢$8
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp32¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown68¢$8
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp32¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp31¢$6
2h ago0x844f…6fccMidBuyDown71¢$10
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown69¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown57¢$7
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown43¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp61¢$7
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp54¢$5
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp54¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown43¢$5
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp32¢$4