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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $13.9K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 16:58computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$47 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$921
72h +$921
Smart money entered92¢99¢at 16:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$13.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $47 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $47 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$921, +$921 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 16:58
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$34
1h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$62
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$44
1h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$484
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$5
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$5
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$102
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
1h agoply-pm4MidSellDown98¢$99
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
1h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1h agoply-pm4MidSellDown98¢$99
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp8.0¢$5
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown90¢$5
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown90¢$5
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp10¢$2
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp10¢$2
1h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown82¢$59
1h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown82¢$59
1h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown80¢$23
1h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown80¢$23
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp17¢$1
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp17¢$1
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp19¢$1
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp23¢$0
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp23¢$0
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown64¢$8
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp34¢$2
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp34¢$2
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp30¢$1
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp30¢$2
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown51¢$0
1h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown51¢$3
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp42¢$1
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp43¢$3
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp42¢$1
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp43¢$2
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp46¢$2
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp46¢$2
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown41¢$5
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown38¢$4
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown38¢$1
1h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyDown53¢$5
1h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyDown53¢$5
1h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown47¢$28
1h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown47¢$28
1h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown48¢$19
1h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown48¢$19