Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $20.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,995
72h +$5,995
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 16:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$20.1K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,995, +$5,995 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 16:58
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $41 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $22 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $15 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $19 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $115 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $211 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $211 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $11 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $59 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $210 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $238 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $210 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $198 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1,171 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1,171 |
| 2h ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $102 |
| 2h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $43 |
| 2h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $12 |
| 2h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $15 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $381 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $98 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $96 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $96 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 90¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Sell | Down | 90¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $93 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $93 |