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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $13.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 16:58computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
14
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$46.8K
72h +$46.8K
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 16:58(85% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$13.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

14 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 85% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$46.8K, +$46.8K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 16:58
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown89¢$744
2h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$995
2h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown99¢$40
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
2h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$990
2h ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown99¢$1,485
2h ago0x1875…a782MidBuyDown99¢$5,066
2h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$9,905
2h ago0x1006…e85bMidBuyDown99¢$6,930
2h ago0x1875…a782MidBuyDown99¢$1,192
2h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown96¢$960
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown98¢$980
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyDown93¢$930
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$2,970
2h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$8,829
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$2,970
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$693
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown96¢$9
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown96¢$5
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$48
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$48
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$48
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h agoply-pm4MidSellDown80¢$46
2h agoply-pm4MidSellDown80¢$46
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp17¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp21¢$3
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp23¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp23¢$7
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp23¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp23¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp52¢$16
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp35¢$14
2h agoviniangussoTopBuyDown67¢$3
2h agoviniangussoTopBuyDown67¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp34¢$9
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp35¢$14
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp35¢$1
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp35¢$1
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp35¢$9
2h agoviniangussoTopBuyUp37¢$2
2h agoviniangussoTopBuyUp37¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp52¢$2
2h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp52¢$3