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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $15.0K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 15:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$3,834 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$6,081
72h +$6,081
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 15:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$15.0K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $3,834 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$6,081, +$6,081 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 15:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$0
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$11
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$38
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$87
1h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$131
1h ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$1,727
1h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$7
1h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1
1h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1
1h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$2,865
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidSellDown100¢$93
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidSellDown100¢$8
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidSellDown100¢$15
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown100¢$100
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown100¢$100
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidSellDown100¢$163
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$12
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$101
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$6
1h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$58
1h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$158
1h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1h agoply-pm4MidSellDown93¢$9
1h agoply-pm4MidSellDown93¢$42
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown90¢$54
1h agoply-pm4MidSellDown92¢$0
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown83¢$4
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown83¢$6
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown65¢$8
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp37¢$9
1h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown64¢$6
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp37¢$9
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp39¢$2
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp38¢$10
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$1
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$1
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp39¢$2
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$1
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$14
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$2
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$16
1h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp38¢$10
1h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp39¢$2