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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $15.4K·Volume $64·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 15:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$400
72h +$400
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 15:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$15.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$400, +$400 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 15:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$3
2h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
2h agoply-pm4MidSellDown93¢$9
2h agoply-pm4MidSellDown93¢$9
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown87¢$22
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown87¢$22
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$1
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$2
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$1
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp10¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp10¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp10¢$1
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp10¢$0
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp10¢$2
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown86¢$4
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown85¢$4
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown85¢$4
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp30¢$0
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp30¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown72¢$7
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown72¢$7
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown72¢$7
2h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown75¢$7
2h agoply-pm4MidBuyDown75¢$7
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown62¢$7
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp29¢$1
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp29¢$11
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp29¢$1
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp29¢$11
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp29¢$7
2h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp29¢$7
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp36¢$4
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown65¢$13
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp45¢$3
2h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp45¢$16
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown57¢$1
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown57¢$1
2h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp48¢$6
2h ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp48¢$6
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp48¢$19
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp48¢$19
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp48¢$0
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp48¢$0
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp49¢$20
2h ago0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835TopBuyUp49¢$20