Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up19%Down81%
Smart money leans
Down
81% at snapshot
Divergence
+1.4pp
model above price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
81%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,386
72h +$4,386
Smart money entered98¢81¢at 04:28(0% priced in)Edge left+1.4ppLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 81% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 81¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,386, +$4,386 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $785 |
| 3h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $121 |
| 3h ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $50 |
| 3h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $17 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $21 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $237 |
| 3h ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $31 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $68 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $43 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x00b1…62beMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3,399 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $98 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $56 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $97 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $95 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 84¢ | $30 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 84¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 85¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 17¢ | $0 |