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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up19%Down81%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
81% at snapshot
Divergence
+1.4pp
model above price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
81%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,386
72h +$4,386
Smart money entered98¢81¢at 04:28(0% priced in)Edge left+1.4ppLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 81% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 81¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,386, +$4,386 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$785
3h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$8
3h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$5
3h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$121
3h ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown100¢$4
3h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$50
3h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$17
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$7
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$0
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$5
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$5
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$21
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$3
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$4
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$16
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$16
3h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$237
3h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$31
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$68
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$43
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$5
3h ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
3h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,399
3h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
3h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$56
3h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
3h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
3h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown84¢$30
3h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown84¢$29
3h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$0
3h agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$0
3h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown85¢$9
3h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown85¢$0
3h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown85¢$4
3h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp17¢$0