Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $9,917·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,930
72h +$5,930
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 04:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$9,917
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,930, +$5,930 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $14 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $10 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $14 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $82 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2,487 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2,487 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $98 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $98 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $97 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $97 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $96 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 65¢ | $19 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $31 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 40¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 42¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | viniangussoTop | Buy | Up | 39¢ | $36 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 38¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 38¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 44¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 38¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 33¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 30¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 71¢ | $18 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 28¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 72¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 72¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 71¢ | $6 |