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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.5K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.3pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$7,443
72h +$7,443
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 04:29Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$11.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$7,443, +$7,443 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$1
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$1
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$10
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$2
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$4
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$1
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$10
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$27
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$420
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$65
4h ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$231
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown91¢$5
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$4
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp11¢$2
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$1
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$7
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$14
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$2,876
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$99
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$2
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$99
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$2,876
4h ago0x00b1…62beMidSellDown99¢$158
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$390
4h ago0x00b1…62beMidSellDown99¢$158
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$99
4h agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$1
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp1.0¢$0
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown83¢$12
4h ago0xac05…e6c8MidBuyUp23¢$50
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp55¢$10
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp55¢$10
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp55¢$2
4h agoviniangussoTopBuyUp54¢$3
4h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp37¢$4
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp22¢$5
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp21¢$1
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown77¢$0