Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $18.7K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$12.0K
72h +$12.0K
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 12:55(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$18.7K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$12.0K, +$12.0K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 12:55
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,167 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,998 |
| 3h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $26 |
| 3h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $34 |
| 3h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,269 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $37 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $69 |
| 3h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $49 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $15 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $58 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $24 |
| 3h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3,465 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3,465 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $10 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $14 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $34 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $22 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | ohioismTop | Buy | Up | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 94¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |