Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $15.8K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$383 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$7,944
72h +$7,944
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 10:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$15.8K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $383 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$7,944, +$7,944 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 10:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $4,995 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $100 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $100 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $16 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $16 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $139 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $990 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $198 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $139 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $990 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $198 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $198 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $47 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $198 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $47 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $25 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $314 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $25 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $25 |
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $97 |
| 1h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |