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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $13.5K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 10:51computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$880
72h +$880
Smart money entered90¢99¢at 10:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$13.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$880, +$880 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 10:51
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$122
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$6
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$280
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$186
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown91¢$44
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp18¢$4
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp13¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown90¢$5
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp16¢$1
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp20¢$4
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown90¢$4
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp8.0¢$2
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp10¢$2
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown76¢$3
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp17¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown78¢$8
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp18¢$7
2h agoohioismTopBuyUp18¢$7
2h ago0x5e8e…8212MidBuyDown92¢$5
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp14¢$1
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp15¢$1
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp9.0¢$0
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp9.0¢$0
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp16¢$1
2h agososwald1MidBuyUp16¢$0
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown92¢$92
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown92¢$92
2h ago0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMidSellUp11¢$20
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown67¢$68
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$6
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown45¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown45¢$7
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$24
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$2
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$10
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$2
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp30¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$0
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown45¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown69¢$1
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown53¢$32
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown53¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown23¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown23¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown23¢$7