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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $12.2K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 10:51Smart money exiting · $316 sold 24hcomputed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$528
72h +$528
Smart money entered60¢99¢at 10:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$12.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Warning: wallets that backed "Down" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$528, +$528 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 10:51
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$4
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$2
2h ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$190
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$81
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$11
2h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown95¢$33
2h agoohioismTopBuyDown95¢$33
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown81¢$4
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp18¢$2
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp44¢$4
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp44¢$4
2h ago0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMidSellDown63¢$0
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown43¢$12
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown38¢$18
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown43¢$10
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown38¢$1
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown36¢$0
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown38¢$5
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown37¢$5
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown32¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown32¢$8
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown32¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown31¢$3
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown32¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown31¢$7
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown31¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown32¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown30¢$2
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown33¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown34¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown34¢$2
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown33¢$12
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown37¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown37¢$4
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown40¢$1
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown40¢$1
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown28¢$2
2h agomachine-earningMidSellDown35¢$1
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown36¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown37¢$5
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp73¢$43
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp76¢$46
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown36¢$20
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp73¢$4
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown36¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown37¢$9
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown37¢$1
2h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown36¢$3
2h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellDown37¢$9