Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $16.6K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,200
72h +$1,200
Smart money entered97¢99¢at 10:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$16.6K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,200, +$1,200 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 10:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $117 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $96 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $97 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 4.0¢ | $28 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | Patron7777Mid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $500 |
| 3h ago | Patron7777Mid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $500 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $14 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $14 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 6.0¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 91¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $56 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $24 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $15 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $24 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 70¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 57¢ | $10 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 57¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 51¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 43¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 57¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 50¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 45¢ | $2 |