Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $17.1K·Volume $10·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,820
72h +$1,820
Smart money entered95¢99¢at 08:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$17.1K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,820, +$1,820 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $302 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $396 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $60 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $32 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $9 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $15 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $24 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $17 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $34 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $506 |
| 1h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 15¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 17¢ | $5 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $70 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 24¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 20¢ | $6 |
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Down | 23¢ | $9 |
| 1h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 20¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 20¢ | $6 |
| 1h ago | G-Penis-MonsterTop | Buy | Down | 23¢ | $9 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 16¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 15¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Down | 14¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Down | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Down | 14¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 16¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 15¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Down | 14¢ | $14 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 18¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 83¢ | $3 |