Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $17.4K·Volume $10·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$6,667
72h +$6,667
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 08:52Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$17.4K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$6,667, +$6,667 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $24 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $2,480 |
| 2h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,199 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $24 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $2,480 |
| 2h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,199 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $18 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $18 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $34 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $105 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $9 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $24 |
| 2h ago | 0xac05…e6c8Mid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $54 |
| 2h ago | 0xac05…e6c8Mid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $54 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $12 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $34 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $11 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $33 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 4.0¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 92¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 89¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 91¢ | $5 |