Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.5K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,779
72h +$1,779
Smart money entered93¢100¢at 06:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$12.5K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,779, +$1,779 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1,103 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $97 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 22¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 22¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 79¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 79¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 21¢ | $63 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 63¢ | $26 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 21¢ | $63 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 41¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 63¢ | $26 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 72¢ | $21 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 72¢ | $21 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 88¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 87¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 87¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 15¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 15¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 86¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 12¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 84¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 12¢ | $1 |