Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $18.7K·Volume $4·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
10
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$8,095
72h +$8,095
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 06:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$18.7K
Explanation
10 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$8,095, +$8,095 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $35 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $35 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $60 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $60 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $40 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $32 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $32 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3,465 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3,465 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $45 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $45 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $65 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $65 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $15 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $15 |