Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $17.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$7,762
72h +$7,762
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 06:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$17.1K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$7,762, +$7,762 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $12 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $11 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $64 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $368 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $106 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $109 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $238 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2,568 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $184 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $41 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2,568 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $238 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $124 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 97¢ | $97 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $27 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $23 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 94¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 94¢ | $31 |
| 2h ago | soswald1Mid | Sell | Up | 94¢ | $9 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 18¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $46 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 96¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 94¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 94¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $20 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 93¢ | $1 |