Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.8K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,222
72h +$1,222
Smart money entered92¢100¢at 06:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$12.8K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,222, +$1,222 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x4c09…c918Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $224 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $52 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $184 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $14 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $9 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $23 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $184 |
| 2h ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $41 |
| 2h ago | 0x28b9…531fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $149 |
| 2h ago | 0x28b9…531fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $149 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $52 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Up | 5.3¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 2h ago | izzyaussieMid | Buy | Up | 5.3¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $95 |
| 2h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $95 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 96¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 95¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 12¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | pspspsps5Mid | Buy | Up | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Up | 15¢ | $1 |