Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $17.4K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,509
72h +$2,509
Smart money entered97¢99¢at 06:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$17.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,509, +$2,509 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:06
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $23 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $23 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $17 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $82 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $80 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $6 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $13 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $10 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $114 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $208 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $33 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $46 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $1,401 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $27 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $25 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 98¢ | $98 |
| 3h ago | 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025Mid | Buy | Down | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 27¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Down | 27¢ | $9 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 79¢ | $20 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 79¢ | $98 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 79¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 23¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 21¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 22¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 22¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 21¢ | $4 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 24¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | PBot-5Mid | Buy | Down | 24¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 62¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 62¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0x484e5213d4b75147fd92a0df0e8c7bbcc2ce8e9cMid | Sell | Up | 62¢ | $1 |