Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.4K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$14.6K
72h +$14.6K
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 03:57(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$12.4K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$14.6K, +$14.6K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:57
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $999 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $999 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $72 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $72 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $266 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $280 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $999 |
| 2h ago | 0x3884…416dMid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1,219 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $396 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $217 |
| 2h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0x29ef…1570Mid | Sell | Up | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | 0x4ed4…9876Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $227 |
| 2h ago | 0x4ed4…9876Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $227 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 98¢ | $33 |
| 2h ago | 0x28b9…531fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $149 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $22 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $110 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $110 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $130 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $6 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $130 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2,808 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $63 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $67 |
| 2h ago | machine-earningMid | Sell | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $495 |
| 2h ago | 0xeba7…2d1fMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $67 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $2,808 |
| 2h ago | THG.Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $63 |