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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $12.8K·Volume $204·Ends Nov 12, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down1%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:57computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,201
72h +$3,201
Smart money entered76¢100¢at 02:57(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 12, 2026)Liquidity$12.8K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,201, +$3,201 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:57
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$1,438
1h agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$1,437
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp98¢$98
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp99¢$149
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp99¢$149
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown5.0¢$1
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown5.0¢$1
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp96¢$96
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown10¢$4
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown11¢$2
1h ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellUp91¢$98
1h ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellUp91¢$99
1h agoohioismTopBuyDown10¢$4
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown11¢$2
1h ago0x29ef…1570MidSellUp90¢$68
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown14¢$3
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown13¢$3
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown14¢$3
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyDown13¢$3
1h ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellUp74¢$79
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp86¢$87
1h ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellUp74¢$80
1h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp86¢$86
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp45¢$9
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp46¢$1
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown50¢$5
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp40¢$2
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown56¢$7
1h agososwald1MidBuyDown48¢$5
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp44¢$64
1h agoG-Penis-MonsterTopBuyUp45¢$7
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$2
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyUp46¢$9
1h agoPBot-5MidBuyUp52¢$10
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$2
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$1
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$4
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$2
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$6
1h agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp40¢$4
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$3
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$10
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$2
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$2
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$2
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$16
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$4
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$3
1h agoohioismTopBuyUp44¢$2
1h ago0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025MidBuyDown56¢$4