TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $6,078·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$9,747
Smart money entered93¢100¢at 04:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$6,078
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$9,747 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$90
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$90
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$10
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$13
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$39
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$5
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$10
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$1
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp27¢$3
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp22¢$2
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$1
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x91b6…4b40MidSellUp4.0¢$16
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$1
1d ago0xbdb4…5decMidBuyDown94¢$1,004
1d ago0xbdb4…5decMidBuyDown94¢$1,000
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp4.0¢$0
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp4.0¢$4
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96