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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $17.1K·Volume $2·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down1%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 15:06computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$360
72h +$360
Smart money entered49¢100¢at 15:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$17.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$360, +$360 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 15:06
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h agoRLWGMidBuyUp75¢$4
2h agoRLWGMidBuyUp66¢$3
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown38¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown26¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp77¢$12
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp62¢$12
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp62¢$12
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown38¢$2
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown38¢$2
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown39¢$3
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown45¢$3
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown39¢$3
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown45¢$3
2h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown39¢$3
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp49¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown51¢$6
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown51¢$6
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown50¢$6
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown50¢$6
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$0
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown35¢$4
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$1
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown35¢$4
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$1
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$32
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$3
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$0
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$3
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp71¢$18
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$0
2h ago0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710MidBuyDown29¢$32
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp67¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp67¢$8
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown36¢$54
2h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown36¢$54
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$8
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown35¢$2
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp62¢$7
2h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp62¢$7
2h ago0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518MidBuyUp48¢$57
2h ago0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518MidBuyUp49¢$37
2h ago0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518MidBuyUp50¢$75
2h ago0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518MidBuyUp50¢$9