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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:11computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$8,402
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 05:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$8,402 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:11
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$2
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$2
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$2
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$2
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$416
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$495
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$416
1d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$495
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$97
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$97
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$12
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$12
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$87
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp99¢$90
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp99¢$1
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp99¢$8
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$6
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$6
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$7
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$7
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$11
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$11
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$1
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$1
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$6
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$6
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$6
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$343
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$343
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$42
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$7
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$7
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$42
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$34
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$1
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$34
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$1,976
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$34
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$1
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$34