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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:10computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
10
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$16.8K
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 05:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

10 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$16.8K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$2
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$14
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$10
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$2,008
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$33
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$40
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$482
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$482
1d ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$1,998
1d ago0xb6c3…4a42MidBuyDown100¢$244
1d ago0x440b…6570MidBuyDown100¢$1,998
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$2
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$79
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$952
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$952
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$38
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$10
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$2,361
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$2,361
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$38
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$5
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$10
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown93¢$93
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown93¢$93
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown87¢$193
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown86¢$11
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown85¢$7
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown85¢$7
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown86¢$11
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown87¢$193
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown86¢$3
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown86¢$19
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown86¢$19
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyUp22¢$1
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyUp22¢$1
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp12¢$4
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown89¢$16
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown89¢$11
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown89¢$197
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown89¢$11
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown89¢$197