Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
ActiveLiquidity $9,857·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$4,388
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 05:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$9,857
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$4,388 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | 0x7cb2…e655Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $197 |
| 1d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $197 |
| 1d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $428 |
| 1d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $428 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Sell | Down | 100¢ | $390 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Sell | Down | 100¢ | $390 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $52 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $52 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1,485 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $74 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $74 |
| 1d ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $1,485 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x720b…d2cdMid | Buy | Down | 99¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 80¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 70¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Down | 70¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 43¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 45¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 43¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | OhioAIMid | Buy | Up | 35¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | 0x91b6…4b40Mid | Buy | Down | 67¢ | $51 |