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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $9,992·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:57computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
12
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$11.0K
Smart money entered93¢100¢at 04:57Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$9,992
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

12 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$11.0K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:57
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown96¢$48
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown96¢$48
1d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$495
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$396
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$198
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$42
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$396
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$198
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$42
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown94¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$12
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$8
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown95¢$33
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown94¢$7
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown90¢$45
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown90¢$45
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown84¢$84
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown82¢$41
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown82¢$41
1d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp13¢$14
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp13¢$1
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp13¢$0
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp13¢$4
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$9
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$9
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$9
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$22
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$23
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown87¢$2
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp41¢$25
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp4.0¢$3
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp5.0¢$0
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown60¢$25
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp4.0¢$3
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown76¢$23
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp5.0¢$0
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp5.0¢$6
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp5.0¢$6
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$36
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$63
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99