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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:11computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$6,807
Smart money entered56¢100¢at 05:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$11.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$6,807 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:11
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown30¢$2
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp61¢$22
1d ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown30¢$2
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown39¢$21
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown39¢$41
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown34¢$36
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp41¢$43
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp45¢$23
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp41¢$43
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp44¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown89¢$89
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown89¢$89
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp17¢$7
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp22¢$9
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp27¢$11
1d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown73¢$1,098
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown73¢$57
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown73¢$19
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp26¢$11
1d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown73¢$1,098
1d ago0x91b6…4b40MidSellUp23¢$30
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown63¢$16
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown63¢$65
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown63¢$63
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown33¢$4
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown34¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown25¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown33¢$2
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown33¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown52¢$7
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown51¢$43
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown48¢$3
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown54¢$8
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown55¢$57
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown52¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown54¢$47
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp65¢$2
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown52¢$3
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp64¢$9
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown13¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown32¢$3
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown44¢$2
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown48¢$5
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp64¢$2
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp64¢$7
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp64¢$8
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown13¢$0
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown13¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown29¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown32¢$6