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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $9,960·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$4,280
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 04:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$9,960
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$4,280 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$6
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$10
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$12
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$69
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$12
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$69
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,465
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1d ago0x91b6…4b40MidSellUp13¢$7
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp38¢$8
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp38¢$8
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown91¢$32
1d ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp29¢$25
1d ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp29¢$25
1d ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp29¢$25
1d ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyUp29¢$25
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown68¢$7
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown68¢$7
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown66¢$8
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp34¢$1
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp34¢$2
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp34¢$4
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp34¢$2
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp50¢$10
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown50¢$10
1d ago0x4a0a0b5b5c6c728328e9ee0bd59035f21957ac8fMidBuyUp54¢$1,042
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown48¢$3
1d ago0x91b6…4b40MidBuyUp55¢$52
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$2
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown39¢$2
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp55¢$14
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp56¢$7
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp56¢$7
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown41¢$5
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown41¢$5
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp53¢$6
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp53¢$6
1d ago0xe956…d21cMidBuyDown41¢$74