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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
18
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$22.4K
Smart money entered93¢100¢at 04:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

18 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$22.4K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$982
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$348
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$495
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$982
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x1859…4d37MidBuyUp1.0¢$5
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp1.0¢$8
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$3
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$495
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$548
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$566
1d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$495
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$3
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp1.0¢$8
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$548
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$566
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$495
1d ago0x1859…4d37MidBuyUp1.0¢$5
1d ago0x8e77…25f8MidBuyDown99¢$64
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$23
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$5
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$23
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$5
1d ago0x8e77…25f8MidBuyDown99¢$64
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown99¢$1,485
1d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,431
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown99¢$1,485
1d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,431
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$17
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$96
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown95¢$95
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown95¢$95
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown94¢$37
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$9
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$10
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$9
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp6.0¢$1
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp6.0¢$7
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp6.0¢$1
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp6.0¢$0
1d ago0x1859…4d37MidBuyUp7.0¢$5