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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$5,556
Smart money entered84¢100¢at 04:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$11.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$5,556 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$436
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$2
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$11
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$3
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$66
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$10
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$5
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$30
1d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$30
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$7
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$475
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$7
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$30
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$181
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$30
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$181
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$99
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown98¢$25
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp5.0¢$3
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp4.0¢$1
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown96¢$24
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown96¢$24
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown92¢$229
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown92¢$229
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$4
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$13
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$11
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown86¢$171
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$4
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$13
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown87¢$11
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown86¢$171
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown73¢$55
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown56¢$5