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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.2K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$4,468
Smart money entered68¢99¢at 04:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$11.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$4,468 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$26
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$26
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$6
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$6
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$1
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$515
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$515
1d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$2
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp1.0¢$2
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp1.0¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp3.0¢$6
1d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$4
1d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown90¢$14
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$0
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp16¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp42¢$1
1d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown60¢$13
1d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown62¢$155
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp42¢$12
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp45¢$4
1d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown58¢$3
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown56¢$4
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp42¢$1
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp59¢$9
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp42¢$16
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp42¢$25
1d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp41¢$1
1d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp42¢$2
1d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp42¢$1
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown56¢$4
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$6
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$6
1d ago0x1859…4d37MidBuyDown65¢$24
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$6
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$7
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$3
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp32¢$2
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp41¢$4
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp35¢$20
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp40¢$3
1d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp35¢$6
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$0
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown64¢$3