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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.2K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:28computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$7,973
Smart money entered96¢100¢at 04:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$11.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$7,973 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:28
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$36
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$36
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$30
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$30
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$21
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$21
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$10
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp99¢$10
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$3,024
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$117
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$137
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$187
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$49
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$50
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$117
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$137
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$3,024
1d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp99¢$187
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$50
1d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyUp99¢$49
1d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown5.0¢$2
1d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp95¢$95
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown17¢$17
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown14¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown17¢$17
1d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown14¢$2
1d ago0x1859…4d37MidBuyDown20¢$22
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$1
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$0
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$0
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$6
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$1
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$4
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$4
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$12
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown19¢$2
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$26
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$0
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$18
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$8
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$22
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp89¢$89
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$46
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$0
1d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp88¢$46