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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of Nov 13, 05:10computed 1d ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,209
Smart money entered56¢99¢at Nov 13, 05:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,209 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of Nov 13, 05:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown99¢$199
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown99¢$199
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown61¢$5
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown61¢$9
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown61¢$5
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown61¢$15
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown70¢$71
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown64¢$7
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown65¢$67
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown40¢$11
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown52¢$3
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown52¢$3
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown50¢$17
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp21¢$5
3d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp15¢$6
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp19¢$6
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp19¢$4
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp19¢$2
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp19¢$4
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown31¢$5
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown31¢$12
3d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$28
3d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp17¢$29
3d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$97
3d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$68
3d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$1
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$11
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$11
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$4
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$2
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$0
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$3
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$1
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$2
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$0
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown36¢$2
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown31¢$13
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown37¢$39
3d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown98¢$5
3d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown75¢$4
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown92¢$185
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown92¢$185
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp49¢$33
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp49¢$1
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp49¢$0
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp49¢$14
3d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown51¢$53
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown42¢$169
3d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown42¢$169