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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $11.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:30computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$2,516
Smart money entered17¢100¢at 04:30(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$11.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 17¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$2,516 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:30
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d ago0x485d…1fe5MidSellDown100¢$200
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp7.2¢$31
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$27
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp7.2¢$29
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$27
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$71
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$98
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown95¢$95
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown97¢$70
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown70¢$11
2d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown83¢$569
2d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown83¢$576
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$18
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown81¢$82
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown76¢$19
2d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown18¢$121
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown21¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown16¢$16
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown20¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown20¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown20¢$5
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown20¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown22¢$6
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown22¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown21¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown21¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown22¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown22¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown21¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown32¢$10
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown32¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown23¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$7
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown30¢$6
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown31¢$8
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown26¢$4
2d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown13¢$168
2d ago0xac05…e6c8MidSellDown12¢$1
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown19¢$5
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown8.0¢$1
2d ago0x91b6…4b40MidBuyUp92¢$50
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown7.9¢$10
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown24¢$25
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp78¢$28
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp81¢$2
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp81¢$2
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown4.0¢$1
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown4.0¢$0
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp97¢$24