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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.2K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:05computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$14.7K
72h +$14.7K
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 02:05(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$10.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$14.7K, +$14.7K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:05
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$8
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$179
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$8
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$179
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$999
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$999
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$5
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$5
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1,998
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$1,998
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$3,358
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyDown100¢$3,358
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown99¢$542
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown99¢$104
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown99¢$542
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown99¢$104
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown95¢$22
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown94¢$85
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown94¢$85
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown97¢$87
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$1
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$1
8h ago0x50f7MidBuyUp2.0¢$0
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown72¢$41
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown72¢$41
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp32¢$9
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp32¢$8
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown89¢$23
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown89¢$23
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp8.7¢$8
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyUp8.7¢$8
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp7.0¢$3
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown94¢$85
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyUp7.0¢$3
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown94¢$23
8h ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown94¢$84
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp15¢$0
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp15¢$0
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp15¢$4
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp15¢$1
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp15¢$5
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyUp13¢$109
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp14¢$1
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyUp13¢$109
8h agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp14¢$1
8h agoOhioAIMidBuyDown81¢$21
8h agoAtomforgeMidBuyDown73¢$499