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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Up99%Down1%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:31computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Up
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$395
Smart money entered86¢99¢at 04:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$395 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:31
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown3.9¢$27
2d ago0x9566…6f25MidBuyUp99¢$20
2d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyDown1.0¢$3
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp98¢$98
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp96¢$21
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown4.0¢$5
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown4.0¢$0
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp96¢$75
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp97¢$97
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown18¢$8
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown10¢$3
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown10¢$32
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown12¢$3
2d ago0xbdb4…5decMidSellDown10¢$45
2d ago0xbdb4…5decMidSellDown10¢$48
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown17¢$7
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown10¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown10¢$3
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown10¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown10¢$0
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp85¢$30
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp68¢$10
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp67¢$10
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown50¢$8
2d agoviniangussoTopBuyDown42¢$2
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown50¢$3
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown40¢$6
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown50¢$8
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp55¢$23
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp55¢$9
2d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp44¢$2
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp39¢$1
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp39¢$20
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp39¢$0
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp39¢$5
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp44¢$18
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp40¢$9
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp39¢$5
2d ago0xbdb4…5decMidBuyDown51¢$517
2d agoviniangussoTopBuyUp56¢$3
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp56¢$9
2d ago0xbdb4…5decMidBuyDown51¢$500
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp54¢$17
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyDown42¢$8
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp54¢$5
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp53¢$0
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp49¢$20
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown31¢$2
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown31¢$11
2d ago0xbdb4…5decMidBuyUp82¢$500