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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,980·Volume $0·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Up12%Down88%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:10computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
88% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
89%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
88%price88%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$999 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$2,260
Smart money entered78¢88¢at 05:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$8,980
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $999 riding on it.

The price of 88% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 88¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $999 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$2,260 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d agoTHG.MidBuyUp99¢$3,174
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp97¢$97
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp98¢$14
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp92¢$93
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp91¢$45
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp90¢$90
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp90¢$21
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp90¢$5
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown23¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown23¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown23¢$7
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp54¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$8
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$5
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$25
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$9
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp83¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp81¢$81
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp82¢$11
2d agoviniangussoTopBuyDown18¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp82¢$5
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp81¢$10
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyUp79¢$120
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$0
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp81¢$8
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown28¢$18
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown26¢$3
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp53¢$7
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp60¢$11
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp53¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp60¢$12
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp54¢$6
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp54¢$6
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp48¢$19
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp35¢$17
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp42¢$6
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp29¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp29¢$3
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$1
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$0
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown92¢$32
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp37¢$4
2d agoOhioAIMidBuyUp37¢$7