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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$5,398
Smart money entered59¢99¢at 04:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$5,398 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$1
2d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$2
2d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$54
2d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyUp1.0¢$7
2d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown99¢$121
2d agoply-pm4MidBuyUp3.0¢$2
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp4.0¢$1
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp4.0¢$1
2d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown84¢$94
2d agoply-pm4MidBuyUp17¢$7
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp25¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp28¢$0
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp8.0¢$1
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp8.0¢$1
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyUp8.0¢$1
2d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown89¢$19
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp13¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp11¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp11¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp11¢$1
2d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown84¢$8
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown88¢$7
2d ago0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489MidBuyDown87¢$97
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown88¢$13
2d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown85¢$11
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp13¢$3
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$2
2d agoply-pm4MidBuyDown89¢$11
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$3
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp12¢$0
2d agoBossgirlTopBuyDown73¢$11
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown82¢$6
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown71¢$4
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown76¢$4
2d agoizzyaussieMidBuyDown81¢$11
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$0
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp34¢$31
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$1
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp18¢$4
2d ago0x485d…1fe5MidBuyUp30¢$2
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp14¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp14¢$4
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp14¢$0