TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,933·Volume $0·Ends Nov 10, 2026
Price now:Up1%Down99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:27computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
60%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
11
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$23.3K
Smart money entered92¢99¢at 04:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 10, 2026)Liquidity$8,933
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

11 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$23.3K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:27
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$1,107
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$1,107
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$2
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$2
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$99
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$99
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$495
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$495
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$185
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$908
2d ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown99¢$40
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyDown99¢$185
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$908
2d ago0x7cb2…e655MidBuyDown99¢$40
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$87
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$87
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$1,485
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$1,485
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$107
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$107
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$7
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$7
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$85
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$85
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$5
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$286
2d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,083
2d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown99¢$1,485
2d ago0x9587…c10aTopBuyDown99¢$495
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$5
2d agoTHG.MidBuyDown99¢$3,083
2d ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown99¢$1,485
2d agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown99¢$286
2d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$3
2d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$2
2d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$5
2d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$693
2d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$81
2d ago0x00b1…62beMidBuyDown99¢$8
2d ago0x720b…d2cdMidBuyDown99¢$693
2d agoNIULAI4MidBuyUp3.0¢$1
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$26
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$24
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$25
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$10
2d ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown96¢$11
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$2
2d ago0x50f7MidBuyUp3.0¢$2
2d ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown93¢$14
2d agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown93¢$140