Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $9,513·Volume $2·Ends Nov 14, 2026
Price now:Up100%Down0%
Smart money leans
Up
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,494
72h +$5,494
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 02:00(76% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 14, 2026)Liquidity$9,513
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Up", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 76% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,494, +$5,494 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,997 |
| 3h ago | 0x50f7Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $1,997 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $101 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $979 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $119 |
| 3h ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Up | 100¢ | $119 |
| 3h ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Up | 99¢ | $149 |
| 3h ago | 0x485d…1fe5Mid | Buy | Down | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Up | 96¢ | $16 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 65¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 49¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 49¢ | $7 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 52¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 52¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 48¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 48¢ | $12 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 48¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 51¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 50¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 51¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 51¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 48¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Up | 48¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 55¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 55¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 52¢ | $3 |
| 3h ago | ply-pm4Mid | Buy | Down | 51¢ | $3 |