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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $10·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$618
72h +$618
Smart money entered83¢100¢at 02:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$618, +$618 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown97¢$33
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown96¢$33
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown97¢$31
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown97¢$33
4h ago0xbe53…1707MidBuyDown97¢$145
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown98¢$25
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown95¢$32
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown95¢$31
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown95¢$32
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$33
4h agoNIULAI4MidBuyDown93¢$34
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyDown91¢$23
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown61¢$7
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown53¢$32
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown31¢$23
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown52¢$3
4h agoBoneOhioTopBuyDown52¢$17
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown55¢$33
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyDown29¢$11
4h ago0xebb2…63edMidBuyUp96¢$24
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp93¢$56
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp93¢$56
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp85¢$21
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp72¢$18
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp72¢$4
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp72¢$18
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp72¢$4
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp70¢$4
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyUp70¢$4
4h ago0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530TopBuyDown50¢$30
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp44¢$2
4h agoAnon-0xCEMidBuyUp44¢$2